Backtest Results & Strategy Intelligence

Cross-strategy performance across all stock pages | Backtest + Live data
Overview
Backtest Rankings
Live Trading
Improvements
Quality Pages
Methodology
Loading backtest data...
Asset Class Performance 2-Year Backtest
Top 6 Algorithms Ranked by Sharpe
Rank Algorithm Asset Grade Sharpe Win Rate Profit Factor Total PnL Trades
All Algorithm Backtest Results 2-Year Window (2024-2026)
Rank Algorithm Asset Grade Sharpe Sortino Win Rate Profit Factor Avg Win Avg Loss Total PnL Max DD Trades
Portfolio-Level Stats All Assets Combined
Live Paper Trading Performance LIVE
Performance by Algorithm LIVE
Algorithm Trades Wins Losses Win Rate Avg Return Total PnL Avg Hold (h)
Closed Trade Log LIVE
Symbol Algorithm Direction Asset Entry Exit Return % PnL $ Exit Reason Hold (h)
Open Positions LIVE
Symbol Algorithm Direction Asset Entry Price Current Unrealized % PnL $ Hold (h)
Critical Issues ACTION REQUIRED
Opportunities RECOMMENDED
Strengths WORKING WELL
Top Forward-Facing Quality Stock Pages NOT BACKTESTED

These pages show real-time, forward-looking stock data — not historical backtests. They track live positions, institutional data, and consensus picks with real market verification.

Backtest Methodology

How Backtests Are Run

Data Source: Historical OHLCV data from daily_prices table (Yahoo Finance & Finnhub). 2-year window: Feb 2024 – Feb 2026.

Entry Signals: Generated by each algorithm using its own indicator set (RSI, MACD, Bollinger, etc.). Stored in stock_picks, miracle_picks2, miracle_picks3 tables.

Exit Logic: Bar-by-bar simulation checking: (1) If intraday low ≤ stop-loss price → exit at SL, (2) If intraday high ≥ take-profit price → exit at TP, (3) If holding days ≥ max_hold → exit at close.

Commission Model: Questrade tiered commissions ($4.95–$9.95 per trade) + 0.1% slippage per side.

Position Sizing: 5% of capital per position, capped at $2,000. Max 20% per sector. Starting capital: $10,000.

Embargo: 2-day embargo after pick date to prevent look-ahead bias.

Execution: Backtests run nightly via GitHub Actions (refresh-stocks-portfolio.yml, weekdays 23:30 UTC). Results cached in report_cache table.

Metric Definitions

Sharpe Ratio = (Mean Daily Return / Std Dev) × √252. Measures risk-adjusted return. >2.0 = excellent, >1.0 = good, <0 = losing money.

Sortino Ratio = (Mean Return / Downside Deviation) × √252. Like Sharpe but only penalizes downside volatility.

Profit Factor = Sum(Wins) / |Sum(Losses)|. >1.5 = strong, 1.0–1.5 = marginal, <1.0 = losing money.

Win Rate = Wins / Total Trades × 100. Note: win rate alone is misleading — a 40% WR with big winners can beat 60% WR with small winners.

Max Drawdown = Largest peak-to-trough decline in portfolio value. Measures worst-case scenario.

Expectancy = (WR × AvgWin) – ((1–WR) × AvgLoss). Expected return per trade. Must be positive for long-term profitability.

Grading Scale: A+ (Sharpe >4), A (Sharpe 2–4), B (Sharpe 1–2), C (Sharpe 0.5–1), D (Sharpe <0.5).

Live Trading Methodology

Paper Trading: $10,000 simulated capital. 5% position sizing (~$500 per trade). Max 10 concurrent positions.

Data Sources: Finnhub (stocks), FreeCryptoAPI (crypto), TwelveData (forex). Sub-minute refresh.

20 Algorithms: 19 technical + Challenger Bot (smart money consensus). Each generates signals independently.

Regime Gating: 19/20 algorithms use HMM regime detection (bull/sideways/bear). Signals suppressed when regime disagrees with trade direction.

Position Management: Auto SL/TP enforcement. Max hold caps: Crypto 24h, Stocks 72h, Forex 48h. Sector concentration max 2 per group.

Self-Learning: Parameters optimized via grid search on closed trades. Learned vs Original tracked in lm_algo_performance table.

Source Code & API Links
ComponentSource FileAPI EndpointDescription
Backtest Engine (v1) findstocks/api/backtest.php Run Backtest Configurable TP/SL/hold, Questrade fees, vol filtering, embargo
Backtest Engine (v2) findstocks/portfolio2/api/backtest.php Run Backtest v2 Concurrent positions, dynamic capital allocation, equity curve
What-If Scenarios findstocks/portfolio2/api/whatif.php 10 Scenarios 10 presets: DayTrader, Swing, Conservative, Momentum Ride, etc.
Horizon Picks findstocks/portfolio2/api/horizon_picks.php 3 Horizons Quick Gains (10/5/10d), Swing (20/8/60d), Long-Term (40/15/252d)
Short Backtest findstocks/api/short_backtest.php Short Trades Inverse logic with SPY regime detection (bull/bear/sideways)
Algo Performance live-monitor/api/algo_performance.php 30-Day Summary Learned vs Original comparison, daily snapshots, virtual what-if
Live Trading live-monitor/api/live_trade.php Dashboard Paper trading with 20 algorithms, auto SL/TP, regime gating
Sharpe Report scripts/comprehensive_performance_report.py JSON Report Per-algorithm Sharpe, Sortino, Calmar, grades, benchmarks
Signal Engine live-monitor/api/live_signals.php Fetch Signals 20 algorithms with technical indicators, confidence scoring
Performance Report scripts/comprehensive_performance_report.py Full Report 2-year backtest with exit reason breakdown, sector analysis
Consensus Tracker findstocks/portfolio2/api/consensus_performance.php Consensus 2+ algo agreement tracking, $200/day challenge, pattern learning
Learning System findstocks/portfolio2/api/learning.php Grid search TP/SL/hold optimization per algorithm + asset class
Algorithm Source Pages
AlgorithmTypeWhere To See PicksWhere To See Performance
Cursor GeniusTechnical Daily Picks L vs O Dashboard
ETF MastersSector ETF Daily Picks Leaderboard
Sector MomentumSector Rotation Daily Picks Leaderboard
Ichimoku CloudTrend Live Monitor L vs O Dashboard
StochRSI CrossoverMomentum Live Monitor L vs O Dashboard
Challenger BotSmart Money Smart Money (Showdown tab) Live Monitor
ConsensusMulti-Algo Vote Consolidated Picks L vs O Dashboard
Trend FollowingTrend Horizon Picks Leaderboard
Mean ReversionReversion Horizon Picks Leaderboard
Blue Chip GrowthFundamental Daily Picks Leaderboard
Benchmarks Used

Stocks

S&P 500 Buy & Hold0.90
Good Algorithm1.00
Very Good2.00
Renaissance (Elite)2.50

Crypto

BTC Buy & Hold1.10
Good Algorithm1.00
Very Good2.00
Elite3.00

Forex

EUR/USD Carry0.30
Good Algorithm0.80
Very Good1.50
Elite2.50
Paper trading only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtest results include commissions (Questrade tiered) and 0.1% slippage. Live trading uses $10K simulated capital with 5% position sizing.