Polymarket Signals Assessment — 2026-05-15

Status: Exists but Under-Utilized | Low Primary Volume

Current State

• alpha_engine/polymarket_signals.py and prediction_market_consensus.py exist.
• Referenced in score_booster.py for small scoring boosts (especially when WR ≥ 60% on ≥2 trades).
• prediction_market_agents/orchestrator.py exists for orchestration.

Key Issues

• Polymarket data is primarily used for scoring boosts rather than generating high-volume, high-edge primary picks.
• Very few picks are emitted where Polymarket is the dominant/primary source.
• Integration with the main production_scanner.py and smart_picks_engine.py is light.

90-Day Recommendation

• P0: Increase weight of high-quality Polymarket consensus (top traders + high agreement) as a primary non-crypto signal source.
• P1: Build a daily Polymarket edge emitter focused on high-liquidity markets with clear directional bias.
• P2: Combine Polymarket signals with existing CopyTrader intel for multi-source "smart money" consensus picks.
• Target: Polymarket-driven picks should represent a visible % of high-trust EQUITY and COMMODITY emissions.

Verdict: Strong data source that is currently under-leveraged. Properly wired, this should improve win rates, especially in event-driven and macro regimes.